Here are some web sites to visit to learn about peak oil, read the lastest news and comments, etc:
The Coming Global Oil Crisis
www.peakoil.net
www.peakoil.com
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
Sampling of recent headlines:
Scientist urges world to get serious about oil crisis.
November 30, 2005.
Read the article.
Oil monitoring body warns demand outstripping supply.
November 22, 2005.
Read the article.
Following are some noteable highlights that serve as a rough, quick introduction/overview of peak oil.
This handbook tells the early story of oil in Texas and mentions:
Ouch!
Going offshore into the Gulf of Mexico leads to another, Ouch!
This study was undertaken by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at the request of the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The request followed a letter to Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson from six trade organizations for oil and gas producers: the American Petroleum Institute, Domestic Petroleum Council, Independent Petroleum Association of America, U.S. Oil and Gas Association, National Ocean Industries Association, and Natural Gas Supply Association.
In their letter, the six organizations raised concerns about the effects of depletion on future oil and natural gas supply. Recent interest in the effects of depletion follows reports which suggest that future production may be more difficult than previously thought. Several reports have highlighted the sharp change in the decline rate for wells on the continental shelf in the Gulf of Mexico. While natural gas wells drilled in 1972 declined from their peak at an average rate of 17 percent per year, natural gas wells drilled in 1996 have been declining at an annual rate of 49 percent.1 At the same time, the ratio of natural gas production to the level of proved reserves-resources that have been identified and are ready to be developed-have increased from 15.7 percent in 1991-1992 to 18.0 percent in 1997-1998. In addition to the effects of depletion, exploratory drilling for oil and gas was also extremely low in 1999 as a result of unusually low prices. In 1999 the average number of rigs drilling for oil and natural gas was only 625, the lowest level in decades. Although the short-term effect of lower drilling activity already is being reversed as a result of higher prices for oil and gas in 2000, accurate future projections must account for the long-term effects of depletion on oil and gas production.
Big Ouch:
‘Based on behavioral variables, forecasters start by modeling world demand and non-OPEC supply and then estimate the call on OPEC by taking their difference. They do not estimate OPEC supply based on behavioral variables in the same way that they do with non-OPEC production. There exists ample evidence to suggest that this use of the ‘price leadership model’ is incorrect, and that OPEC will not fill the gap between world demand and non-OPEC supply for several economic reasons. This modeling problem has led to some changes in the recent IEO 2005, and we may see dedicated sections to discuss this issue in the IEO 2006,’ he added.
BTW, those previous sentences are from this story bragging about translating IEO 2005 into Arabic.
Consider the following view of the "great translation":
Sadly, that view point is not as far from the truth as one would hope for the sole sake of "being comfortable" -- more like ignoring the truth that is approaching. If you think I’m joking about the situation being dire, just consider how dire the situation must be to provoke President Bush to come up with some specific advice for his White House staff: take the bus.
If you visit the web sites mentioned at the being of this section you will find charts and discussions about how non-OPEC production is likely already past it’s peak production and that OPEC production is close. While OPEC has already given assurance that they will increase and maintain production for the next decade, one should bear in mind that quick, hard work can only maintain a given production level for so long; for adventually, reserves are depleted -- at the extreme there is nothing left to pump so the production rate becomes zero no matter how quick and hard you are willing to work. Additionally, the faster one produces an oil field, the less of the reserves can be produced. Thus, if one wants to produce as much petroleum product from a reserve as possible, one must have the disipline to not produce too quickly. Take a look at this article:
Burgan oil field’s (Kuwait’s biggest field) peak output revised downward.
Notice, how even though they have done the quick, hard work to be able to produce the field at 1.9 million barrels per day they have had to exercise disipline and reduce the production rate to 1.7 million barrels per day. That’s because, as one continues to produce a field too quickly, the field becomes more and more damaged. Eventually, fewer and fewer of the reserves are produceable and what remains produceable quickly become produceable at a lower and lower rate.
So not only is it foolish to procrastinate for the next decade, while OPEC works quick and hard to keep the world near the current status quo; but also, it is foolish to be simply sitting around praying that nothing goes wrong and then tell ourselves that we "have to" overproduce the fields which will greatly reduce how long the current status quo can be maintained.
It is also foolish to procrastinate as if the world’s demand for energy is not growing and then tell ourselves that we "have to" overproduce the fields.
Ultimately, there will be less petroleum available. (Everyday as a matter of fact.) Ultimately, the rate at which that less petroleum is available will be lower; furthermore, even without a decline in the rate of availablity, the percent of the world’s energy demand that is being supplied by petroleum will be declining which is why growth in energy supplied by other sources such as renewable energy is so important. Additionally, the sooner we begin to change our ways and stop foolish wasting petroleum for uses that can easily be forefilled by other means, the longer the worlds supply of petroleum will last us for purposes that cannot be forefilled without petroleum. For example, it is foolish to have wasted petroleum to write, transmit, and read this document.
BTW, when you read that "near the current status quo" above it is very important to realize that the oil industry is huge. From the prespective of the oil industry, what is refered to "near" is actually a significate amount of energy for other industries to provide. By the time one is saying from the prespective of the oil industry that the difference between the energy that the oil industry can provide vs the energy that is wanted is larger than "near" it will be a tremidious amount of energy for other industries to provide. To get a hint of the amount of effort that it will take for other industries to provide an amount of energy that is significate on the scale on that the oil industry works take a look at the Large Projects section to get some idea of the size and effort of projects that are already being done while we are still "near the status quo".
Super Close Ouch:
To get an idea of how dire the situation is, consider this emergency loan of 871,000 barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
That’s awlfully close to the edge!
6.0 Ouch!
6.0 Gulf quake felt from La. to Fla.
September 11, 2006.
“The magnitude 6.0 earthquake, centered about 260 miles southwest of Tampa, was too small to trigger a tsunami or dangerous waves, the U.S. Geological Survey said.”